Tag Archives: obsolescence

Thrilling? You Bet! Part 3-Final Part

TA article 3

 

OK, so what does the Cost approach tell appraisers (at least, those who are willing to listen) about the market? The listening is in the analytics.

Consider, first of all, the site value as if vacant. This is a separate appraisal within the appraisal. If the appraiser does not know to a professional certainty the value of the subject site as if vacant, how can that appraiser adjust the comparable sites (as if vacant) to it? It is ironic that, to adjust the comparable site’s value to that of the subject, the appraiser must know, to the same certainty, the value of the comparable site as if vacant, too. Assuming three comps and a listing, then the appraiser goes thru this site-as-if-vacant analysis five (5) times. If the appraiser is listening, an analysis five (5) sites deep will tell the appraiser an abundance about a market.

Now, consider the entrepreneurial incentive/profit aspect of the analytics of the Cost approach.

Too many appraisers have fallen into the trap of saying there is not such a profit or incentive in the cost approach since the sale of the property is from one retail buyer to another. It is not a sale from a builder/developer to a retail buyer. This is true. It is true, yet it is also thunderously irrelevant. An appraiser builds the house new on paper. Don’t new houses sell (hopefully!) at a profit from the developer/builder to a retail user? Since it is physically impossible to construct a used house, the analytics of the Cost approach assume a new house first. Therefore to estimate the reproduction or replacement cost new of a house and not include an entrepreneurial incentive or profit is to fail to take a step the market commonly takes. How reflective of the market is that?

For grins and giggles, assume a 15% entrepreneurial incentive to the cost new before any depreciation. This is a trail balloon the appraiser floats to see if there is such a reward in the market. If the market will not pay such a reward there is, by definition, an external obsolescence factor in the market. This is a market condition which the appraiser has an obligation to describe within the report.   Yet, if the appraiser is not willing to measure the market to see if such a reward is present, how can s/he report it? The analytics of the Cost approach show if such a reward is present. The analytics of the Sales Comparison approach do not and cannot.

A blog such as this one is not the time or place to present a long article on calculating depreciation. The point is that while FannieMae, et al, no longer require a Cost approach to be part of an appraisal report going to them, whoever said the analytics of the Cost approach should not be part of an appraisal? FannieMae surely did not. How can an appraiser listen to, and then interpret the market, if s/he ignores two-thirds (Cost and Income approaches) of what it says?

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Thrilling? You Bet! Part 2

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Given there have not been all that many flat residential real estate markets in the past 10-years, how market-accurate, then, are the published tables? SR2-3 requires appraisers to certify to the fact that the statements of facts in an appraisal report are both true and correct. If there have been essentially no flat markets in the last 10-years, how can we certify our depreciation is both true and correct if the published depreciation tables are based on a flat market? If markets are dynamic, but the published tables assume a flat market, how accurate are they?

Another issue with the published tables is their self-recognized inability to speak to the appraiser about functional obsolescence and external or locational obsolescence. Appraisers know there are three components to accrued depreciation. Yet they depend on the published tables to conclude as to all three of depreciation’s components. These tables do not and cannot estimate the latter two forms of depreciation. In addition, it is a logical fallacy to assume a property has only one form of depreciation (even, sometimes, in a new one).

The Comment to SR1-3(a) is very clear about unsupported assumptions. If the appraiser does not engage in the analytics of the Cost approach, how is the appraiser sure there is no functional obsolescence? If the appraiser does not engage in the analytics of the Cost approach, how is the appraiser sure there is no external or locational obsolescence? If the appraiser does not engage in the analytics of the Cost approach, how can the appraiser certify that everything in the Cost Approach is both true and correct? Falling rents and/or falling multipliers may indicate the presence of these other two components of accrued depreciation. However, how many appraisers, via the residential income approach, go to the effort to read the market’s tea-leaves?

To professional appraisers, then, the issue is to extract accrued deprecation from market data. Published tables may be a help with depreciation’s age-life component, true. But they cannot aid the appraiser with conclusions as to functional or locational/external obsolescence. These tables simply cannot calculate them; the appraiser must extract them from the market evidence. Yet, unfortunately, many do not. And, equally unfortunately, many appraisers do not understand when, where, and how to account for an entrepreneurial profit/incentive. Because of this lack of competency, therefore, many appraisers do not understand the market since they are unable to listen to it.